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2 Step Factor analysis

Factor analysis

Once the current situation is clear and what is happening, it is time to analyze the factors.

The analysis of factors is roughly divided into two, "hypothesis setting" and "hypothesis verification".

The "factor" in a factor analysis is a possible cause. It will be something that seems to be "Isn't this the cause?"

Even if you have a star from the beginning, "Isn't this the cause?", The point is to identify possible things at least once. That way, when the one with the star is lost, the next step will be decided. This identification work is the "hypothesis setting".

"Hypothesis verification" is a confirmation of whether the hypothesis is true. You can check everything before proceeding to the next plan, but in my experience, if you look at the ones that have a star from the beginning or the ones that can be checked immediately, and if the hypothesis is correct, then In many cases, the measures that can be taken are started.

When the goal is to achieve a task

When the purpose is to solve a problem, we will investigate the cause of the problem from various factors. There may be a causal relationship between the factors. Ultimately, the root cause can often be narrowed down to one.

There are also causal relationships that do not matter.

When the goal is to accomplish a task, it is an analysis that seeks to find various causal relationships rather than finding something fundamental.


AFD stands for Anticipatory Failure Determination. It means "identification of failure in advance".

The characteristic of AFD is that it does not analyze the reason why the "failure" occurred as "why did it occur?". At AFD, we start thinking, "How can I get the failure?" AFD also provides subsequent steps, but the first step is the main feature. Thinking in this way, it is not an investigation of the cause of what you do, but an invention (creation of a hypothesis), so TRIZ and academic knowledge will be useful.

The approach of "why? Why?" To the cause can be said to be bottom-up (going from bottom to top). "Why? Why?" Can get stuck because you can't think of a reason. AFD, on the other hand, is a top-down (top-to-bottom) approach.

If you want to use AFD to analyze a failure that has already occurred, look in the list of hypotheses for the one that fits the conditions when it actually happened. When used to predict potential failures, we will proceed with risk assessment and preventive measures.

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